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It appears that with a strong heat ridge building directly overhead this weekend, potential for showers and thunderstorms will be reduced. So much so that Friday may be basically rain-free. Not so Saturday and Sunday, where convection may build beneath the otherwise stout atmospheric cap. The heat ridge complex looks to be around for at least a week, preventing the very cool air moving across the Midwest and Northeast from reaching Houston (and indeed anywhere in Texas).
The tropics are the wild card which, in the not-to-distant future, could create a veritable sea change in the local, and national, weather forecast. The main worry is NOT from “Igor”, which was hastily named despite the fact that its convective array was sheared and the center exposed. Rather, the system to watch is Invest 92L now progressing west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea. The various computer models still do not have a good handle on this feature, and I suspect that predictions will continue to shift wildly until the start of the new week. The scenario I am working with now has 92L becoming a hurricane over the Caribbean Sea, then entering the Gulf of Mexico near the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. I think that a weakness between the Sonoran heat ridge and a subtropical high over the lower Sargasso Sea may steer the circulation toward the central/eastern Gulf Coast late in the 6 – 10 day range.
On that topic, we will just have to wait and see….
Friday: Mostly sunny, hazy, hot, humid. Highs 95 Anahuac to 99 Eagle Lake
Friday Night: Mostly fair, warm, humid. Lows 76 Winnie to 80 Hungerford
Saturday: Partly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 94 Wimberley to 98 Wharton
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, humid. Risk of a shower. Lows 75 Needville to 79 High Island
Sunday: Variable cloudiness, quite warm, and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 91 Liberty to 95 Beasley
Monday: Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High 93, Low 76
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High 95, Low 77
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. High 94, Low 75