(Relevant Graphics Follow The Text In The Slide Show)
There have been no real changes in the forecast over the past 48 hours, as the critical weather systems are still about the same. But intrigue is growing for two reasons. One is Invest 99L in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which is lurching northward. The computer models are still at a loss at what to do with this feature, which has room for growth and could well blend in with the lower latitude westerlies. A stronger disturbance in this position might well have two important effects: bringing increased threats for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the eastern third of the U.S., while also serving to boost cold advection after its passage. The GFS scheme may well be right in keeping this system as a threat only to Central America. But remember the botched Nicole and Paula predictions? Caveat emptor!
The rather warm and muggy pattern looks to be re-enforced through the eastern two-thirds of Texas through most of the weekend. There is even a fair chance that the 100 deg F mark will be visited in places like Goliad and Laredo on Saturday. A large storm and frontal structure moving out of Colorado may be close enough to spawn some stronger thunderstorms in Houston on Sunday. But the cool air plume behind the low should be quickly pushed out early next week, as yet another (and stronger) storm forms near the S CO and NM border on Monday.
Looking farther down the road, the nation as a whole will have to contend with a more amplified jet stream configuration. Most of the computer outlooks are locking in on a powerful “gales of November come early” Panhandle Hooker ‘A’ cyclone around an October 26 – 28 time frame. Low pressure systems like these can trigger immense windstorms in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and are also capable of triggering widespread severe thunderstorms from KS/OK/TX into the Corn Belt. A look at the ensemble packages suggest this feature will usher in a period of colder temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains between October 29 and November 4.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs 83 Splendora to 87 Brazoria
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, mild and becoming more humid late. Lows 63 Porter to 67 West Columbia
Thursday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Highs 86 New Caney to 90 East Columbia
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm and humid. Lows 66 Kingwood to 70 Alvin
Friday: Partly sunny, breezy, hot and humid. Highs 87 Humble to 91 Manvel
Saturday: Partly sunny, breezy, hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. High 90, Low 70
Sunday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, humid with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be heavy. High 86, Low 71
Monday: Mostly sunny, less humid but warmer after a cool morning. High 84, Low 58