Hurricane Paula still packing winds of 100 mph and is moving towards the north at 9 mph. Paula is a very small hurricane with hurricane force winds that extend out 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds the extend 60 miles from the center. Paula is expected to gradually weaken over the next several hours and days as she interacts with high shear,dry air and the Cuban landscape.
Please see slide show on the left of this article
Hurricane Paula is moving towards the north at this time; however Paula is forecast to start her northeast turn by this afternoon and then turn more to the east-northeast as she moves into western Cuba. The official track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has shifted a little to the north where as a lot of the computer models have shifted north and some models still keep Paula close to or even south of Cuba. The NHC has indicated that the northward trend is not that credible when they look at the actual weather patterns that are in place or moving into place and they keep hurricane Paula over the northern coast of Cuba for the next 4 to 5 days.
Any northward trend in track will increase the chances of watches and warning being posted for the Florida Keys and south Florida. Remember Paula is a very small hurricane and even if she passes through the Florida Straits she will have very little impact on the Keys and south Florida. The Yucatan east coast and Cuba will experience high winds and rains of 4 to 6 inches are possible over the next day or so. Cuba could see as much as 10 inches of rain over the next 24 hours in the higher mountainous terrain. These rains could produce significant flooding and life threatening mud slides.
…SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE…
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 with about 80% of tropical storms and hurricanes developing during August, September, and October. In a typical year, 11 named storms develop and 6 of these become hurricanes. On average, some portion the District is affected by at least one named storm every other year, a hurricane every 3 years, and a major hurricane every 6-7 years.
Tropical Cyclone Categories:
-Tropical Depression 20 knots/23 mph
-Tropical Storm 34 knots/39 mph
-Category 1 Hurricane 64 knots/74 mph
-Category 2 Hurricane 84 knots/96 mph
-Category 3 Hurricane 97 knots/111 mph
-Category 4 Hurricane 114 knots/131 mph
-Category 5 Hurricane 136 knots/156 mph
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